Recently, a video of Pastor Tunde Bakare announcing with great authority and with excitement that he will succeed Muhammadu Buhari as Nigeria’s president in 2023 resurfaced online and has continued to generate diverse reactions- amplified no less by the current travails of another 2023 presidential hopeful and the incumbent vice president- Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.
Even more, the media speculations that the Senior Pastor of Latter Rain Assembly is scheduled to meet with members of Buhari’s most trusted advisors known to Nigerians as “the Cabal,” in New York later this week has sent the rumour mill into overdrive.
The claims in the now-viral video made about two weeks ago would have been dismissed if it had been made by a lesser personality but coming from a man who is never far from the headline, political watchers are encouraged to pay close attention. Those who have attempted to dismiss Bakare’s prediction as mere hallucination appear to be missing the most important lesson politics in recent times have taught us: predictions are merely academic exercises.
Politics is a very interesting game. Attempting to forecast political outcomes is like trying to predict the English weather. Everything is fluid and what was in the morning may be replaced by an entirely new reality at noon and before nightfall, there could be another shift. Many who follow politics whether in the Nigerian firmament or more temperate societies know what a fool’s errand it could be to assume certainty on any matter.
In 1979, Alhaji Usman Shehu Shagari was mobilizing support to represent Sokoto state as a member of the Nigerian senate when he was asked by a few political godfathers in his party-the National Party of Nigeria- NPN- to abandon his original dream and take a shot at the presidency. Everything was laid out for him and before political pundits could make sense of what was happening, Shagari had been nominated by the NPN as its presidential candidate and a few months later, the Federal Electoral Commission- FEDECO (the designation of the electoral body at the time) announced him the winner in a disputed election. On October 1, 1979, Shagari was inaugurated as Nigeria’s first democratically elected president.
It is interesting to note that Shagari became president above more visible and established politicians like Nnamdi Azikiwe, Nigeria’s first governor-general and the most prominent leader of pre-independence Nigeria, Obafemi Awolowo who spent his entire life preparing and working to be president, Adamu Ciroma, a prominent northern leader, journalist, former governor of the central bank and one of the most established political leaders at the time and several others including the man who would go on to be leader of the second 1979-83 senate- Olusola Saraki. Shagari was not the only Nigerian leader who fooled the pundits on his way to the presidency. No one would have believed in 1979 that Olusegun Obasanjo who handed over to a civilian president would return to power 20 years later to rule Nigeria for another 8 years.
As of July 1998, the former military head of state was still languishing in Yola Prisons for allegedly participating in plots to overthrow the former head of state- Sani Abacha. Before being arrested, detained and tried for what he said was a “phantom coup plot,” Obasanjo was a fierce and relentless critic of the Abacha government.
When he was released by the Abdulsalami Abubakar military junta, Obasanjo, according to informed sources including Orji Uzor Kalu (former Abia state governor and now senator of the Federal Republic) and Femi-Fani-Kayode (former presidential spokesman and later minister), Obasanjo’s bank account only had a balance of N20, 000.
When he was reportedly approached by some political and military leaders of the time to join the presidential race, Obasanjo allegedly asked them in his humorous character- how many presidents do you wish to make out of me?
Well, it did not take long to convince Baba Iyabo to throw his hat in the ring. Few months later at the convention of the PDP in Jos- a party he joined after his release from prison, Obasanjo defeated the cerebral Alex Ekwuweme, former vice president and a frontline democracy campaigner who lead 33 other Nigerians christened – G-34- to form the People Democratic Party after years of relentless opposition against the Abacha military junta.
In the February 1999 presidential election, Obasanjo defeated Chief Oluyemi Falae by polling 62.8% of total votes cast. By May 1999, General Obasanjo was inaugurated as Nigeria’s second democratically elected president- something many would have deemed impossible a few months earlier.
Now make no mistake. Nigeria is not the only country where people emerge from “nowhere” to become presidents. When a junior senator from Illinois- Barack Obama- declared his intention to run for the 2008 US presidential election on February 10, 2007, at Old State Capitol Building, it was dismissed by many watchers of US politics as a wild dream that would never see the light of the day.
Many saw it as an ambitious gamble considering that many Americans at the time had never heard the name “Obama,” cannot pick out the man’s face and not much was known about his political philosophy. Mr. Obama’s only claim to fame was his delivery of the keynote address at his party’s national convention in 2004.
Standing in opposition to Obama were established political warhorses like John Edwards (running mate to 2004 Democratic Party presidential nominee- John Kerry) and Hillary Clinton – former first lady and a senior member of the US Senate.
It was thought impossible at the time that a certain political greenhorn would defeat his more renowned opponents to become the first black man in the White House. Well, after many months of intense campaigning, Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain in November 2008 to become the first black man elected to rule the most powerful nation on earth and on January 20, 2009, he was inaugurated the 44th US president. This outcome could not have been predicted by the most clairvoyant pundits 12 months before it happened. That is how complex the game can be. Eight years later- another greenhorn- Donald Trump – succeeded Mr. Obama as the 45th.
Trump’s campaign started as a publicity stunt and an attempt to spite more established players in the face. However, after 15 months of touring US counties, speaking at more than 100 campaign stops and spending hundreds of millions of his personal fortune, the real estate mogul and anti-establishment element- became the second person in history who lost the popular vote but won at the Electoral College and went on to be inaugurated president after George W. Bush in 2000.
Trump’s presidency today continues to confound several pundits after they had dismissed his chances in the weeks and days leading to the poll. In faraway Ukraine, comedian- Volodymyr Zelensky defeated incumbent president, multi-millionaire and boardroom guru in May this year by a wide margin to emerge the 6th president of Ukraine. Nobody predicted this outcome until it became a reality.
In Nigeria, whether you accept or not, the race for the 2023 presidency has already begun and the key contenders are already mapping out their strategies, mobilizing men and resources, building up their war arsenal in the hope of succeeding incumbent Muhammadu Buhari.
The 2023 presidential election promises so much intensity, drama, and surprises. It will be interesting to watch events that would shape 2023 unfold even as the country is yet to fully sort out the disputes that arose from the 2019 race. As a commentator once said on television, preparation for the next election begins the minute election results are announced.
Yemi Osinbajo would love to succeed his boss when he bows out in 2023 but in the light of recent allegations of corruption in some of the agencies under the supervision of the Vice President, it now seems unlikely that a reportedly averse anti-corruption Buhari would be favourably disposed to leaving Nigeria in the hands of a deputy who has proven not to be very keen on probity and honesty in the conduct of public affairs.
Last week was bad for Vice President Osinbajo no doubt. Many believe that the next 7 days would be no better for him. Sources close to Roots TV have revealed that the opposition PDP would later this Monday, issue a public statement calling for the resignation and trial of Prof Osinbajo for corruption. There are also speculations that members of “the Cabal” are mounting intense pressure on the professor of law to either resign honourably or be impeached and disgraced out of office.
In the race to find a successor in 2023, certain permutations have pointed to names like Nasir El Rufai, Babagana Kingibe and others as favourites. But that would be unfair to the zoning formula which the APC as a party subscribes to. The APC has constituted is made up of two principal power centers from the north and west.
By 2023, the northern bloc would have served 8 complete years in Aso Rock and would be expected to support the southwest to clinch the presidency in accord with the informal agreement reportedly reached by leaders of the party when they came together to form the coalition that became APC in 2013.
If Professor Yemi Osinbajo will not receive the support of the presidency because of allegations of corruption against him, it will even be more unlikely that another strong pillar of the APC and Buhari’s key ally in the formative days of the party – Bola Tinubu- will get a serious look-in by the powers of Aso Rock.
Tinubu may be a master political strategist but many insist that the former Lagos governor’s name and probity can be in the same sentence. Denying Osinbajo the right to test his popularity in the ballot because he is reportedly corrupt and supporting Tinubu will not also be the most logical decision anyone can make and may lead to internal divisions which would eventually tear the party apart even before the first ballot is cast.
This then brings the focus to another key associate of President Buhari in the South West:
Babatunde Gbolahan Bakare, Simply called Pastor Tunde Bakare is the founder of the popular Lagos church- The latter Rain Assembly. Like Osinbajo, Bakare is a lawyer, an orator who knows how to work the microphone and move the crowd to a point of conviction- a critical quality for pastors and lawyers. So if Osinbajo leaves the number 2 seat in Aso Rock for any reason- resignation or impeachment- and Pastor Bakare is eased into Aso Rock as Vice President as several sources are currently speculating, Buhari will still have an intelligent lawyer, public speaker and pastor by his side.
Bakare was President Buhari’s running mate in 2011 under the CPC banner and has remained close to the president since then. He is one of the few Christian religious leaders in Nigeria who speak up on national issues, never shy away from speaking his mind on matters that affect the welfare and unity of Nigerians.
Bakare was a fierce critic of the Obasanjo regime, constantly calling out the former president for “leading Nigeria down the road to perdition.” His acerbic criticism of the Obasanjo administration earned him the attention of the security agencies who picked him up in 2002 for questioning before he was eventually released following wide public outcry.
He was also influential in the Save Nigeria Movement’s series of protests that forced Nigeria’s 7th senate under David Mark’s leadership to adopt the “doctrine of necessity,” which pronounced then vice president- Goodluck Jonathan- as acting president after ailing Umaru Musa Yar’adua had failed to do that before he was evacuated to Saudi Arabia for treatment- a journey he never really “returned from.”
Following the hike in fuel prices after the Jonathan government announced the removal of subsidy from premium motor spirit (petrol) in January 2012, Bakare and his group again returned to the streets of Lagos, calling the former president to immediately reverse the decision and sanitize the oil sector first by identifying and punishing the businessmen who profited unduly from the subsidy regime. When the government announced a partial return of subsidy 6 days later, it was seen as a big victory for Bakare and his team of activists.
Unlike many associates of Muhamadu Buhari who would play the ostrich when classified information and issues of personal interest to the president appear in public domain, Bakare is not one to seek political correctness over common sense.
Pastor Bakare has repeatedly condemned the menace of Fulani herdsmen, calling them murderers, rapists, kidnappers, arsonists, and terrorists who are driving Nigeria towards another civil war. Attacks from Islamic scholars who regard his views as Islam phobic have done little to make him change his position. Pastor Bakare for most observers is only true to his conscience regardless of whose ox is gored.
The only thing that would stand the Pentecostal leader out in the 2023 race when the chips are down is the fact that he has no whiff of corruption around him, unlike his prospective challengers from the southwest who have several skeletons in their cupboards.
Bakare cannot be reasonably accused of looting funds kept in his care or mismanaging a government program he was asked to supervise. No one would accuse him of being a coward or a hypocrite. There is no state in Nigeria he has pocketed and no local or foreign anti-corruption organization has any case on him. He would not struggle to explain the source of his wealth at any time to any man or group.
One more thing we may also consider is the fact that President Buhari is more comfortable dealing with those he has known for longer- to those he said: “laboured with him in the rains.” This disposition would certainly weigh in the pastor’s favour when the horn locking gets to the public square.
Would there be any strong opposition to Candidate Bakare? You can bet your bottom kobo on that.
Questions would be raised on what happens to his flock when he becomes the president, many would want to know how he would manage a multi-religious society like Nigeria as a pastor, some would accuse him of inconsistent judgment following his decision to run with Buhari in 2011 after prophesying in 2006 that the old general would make a bad president.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to hear what defence the man moving into a multi billion naira church auditorium soon would present against criticisms and inquiries?
At any rate, we must never rule Yemi Osinbajo out of the equation no matter the odds against him. Days before the adoption of the Doctrine of Necessity in David Mark’s senate in February 2010, many pundits were still convinced “VP Jonathan can never smell that seat.” Well, Jonathan not only “smelt the seat,” he went on to win a general election and ruled Nigeria for 5 long years.
Sit back and grab a bottle of cold drink. It promises to be the biggest political drama ever recorded in our growing but fragile democracy.
