On Monday, September 16 2019, news filtered in that the Economic Management Team led by Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo has been replaced with a newly constituted Economic Advisory Council to be chaired by Prof Doyin Salami. To work with Prof Salami are eminent economists and eggheads like former CBN governor- Prof Chukwuma Soludo, Ode Ojowu, former Chief Economic Adviser to President Olusegun Obasanjo and Rewane Bismarck, Chairman/CEO of Financial Derivatives Company. Others are- eminent economist and chairman of Development Bank of Nigeria, Dr Shehu Yahaya, global economist and senior official at IMF- Iyabo Masha and senior economist- Salisu Mohammed.
There is little doubt that the president went for very competent hands, hiring individuals with extensive experiences in economic management to help revive what many believe to be a wobbly, declining economy.
Many commentators and analysts including Buhari’s challenger in the February 2019 presidential poll, Prof Kingsley Moghalu- praised the president for looking beyond party and ethnic lines in making what is believed to be his first truly pan-Nigerian selection since 2015.
Interestingly, the president asked the team to report directly to him. Many considered this directive strange because the constitution clearly designated the vice president as the chairman of the National Economic Council- a body whose membership include the 36 state governors, the finance minister and heads of several strategic parastatals.
While Nigerians were still struggling to process the rationale for bypassing the vice president when setting up the new economic advisory body and the abrupt dissolution of the economic management team headed by Prof Osinbajo, the next directive from the presidency hit Nigerians like a thunderbolt.
In a leaked presidential memo sighted by the press, President Buhari instructed that all agencies of government under the supervision of the Vice President including National Emergency Management Agency- NEMA, National Boundary Commission and the Border Communities Development Agency, would now need formal approval from the president in matters such as budgeting, award of contracts, annual report and other strategic decisions.
While it is true that the new arrangements are not unconstitutional, many question why these new torrent of directives are coming now- since they were not in place in President Buhari’s first term.
Then on Wednesday, new information emerged that NEMA and National Social Investment Programme – NSIP- will be moved from the vice president’s office to a new ministry in charge of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development. The new ministry is headed by Sadiya Umar Faruq- a long term political associate of the president.
The Vice President has understandably kept mum over the recent developments but that has not stopped tongues from wagging. Why is Prof Osinbajo being stripped of his powers? Couldsomethingbe simmering in the background?
While it may be hard to get clear insights on the political undercurrent in the presidency considering how miserly the president and his aides are in offering clear narrative to Nigerians, a few events from the past could help make sense of what is happening.
Keen watchers of the Nigerian political space would recall that in November 2018, the House of Representatives under the leadership of Speaker YakubuDogara brushed aside denials by the Vice President’s office in a N5.8 billion contract scam at NEMA involving a project tagged “emergency intervention of food security to the north east,” and insisted that the VP has questions to answer since he was the acting president in June 2017 when the contract was awarded and also in his capacity as the chairman of the governing board of NEMA. An investigative committee headed by Ali J. C submitted that Prof Osinbajo cannot be exonerated of complicity in the fraud.
The lawmaker told the media that the approval of N5.8 billion contravened the National Assembly’s power of approval “as the money was removed from Eurobond without the consent of the parliament.” Hon Ali also maintained that due process regulations were violated as there were “no contract papers, no formal bidding and yet, funds were released and expended.”
Also in October 2018, the House of Reps approved the report of a committee that established a case of N33 billion fraud at NEMA and recommended the sack of the Mustapha YunusaMaihaji- the Director General of the agency.
The Buhari administration has never failed to announce its intention to fight corruption at every given opportunity and when an agency under the supervision of the Vice President is constantly linked with fraud and mismanagement of public resources, it is natural to expect the president to act-decisively or at least whittle down some of the powers of his deputy like he apparently has done now.
NEMA is not the only agency under Osinbajo’s supervision that has been linked with fraud. On May 25 2019 at an event in Aso Rock, the wife of the president Aisha Muhammadu Buhari told her audience that the N500 billion social investment programme of the president has in her words- “failed in the north.” The outspoken Aisha Buhari carpeted the many programmes under the social investment scheme including the N-Power, Conditional Cash Transfers, National Home-Grown School Feeding and Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programmes (GEEP)- saying they have failed to achieve the desired impact and are a huge minus for the president. President Buhari’s wife alerted her guests that over 30, 000 women in Adamawa (her home state) were yet to benefit from the programme.
The Social Investment Programme aimed at providing safety net for millions of poor Nigerians interestingly is under the supervision of VP Osinbajo. If the wife of the president says the programme has failed, it is unlikely that the woman on the street, the unemployed youth, the destitute in several locations across Nigeria will award any pass mark to the SIP. Question: how did N500 billion entrusted to an agency under the supervision of Prof Yemi Osinbajo fail spectacularly in making an impact in the life of Nigerians? More so, could this be why the president has elected- as reported- to transfer the management of the SIP to another person?
Another agency- the Border Communities Development Agency- under the supervision of the Vice President was also recently involved in a procurement scandal with Premium Times reporting in January 2019 that several companies awarded contracts worth tens of millions of naira did not qualify for such projects under the Procurement Act of 2007. Findings by Premium Times revealed that 815 firms listed as contractors for the BCDA failed to meet at least one or two key criteria that define the minimum threshold specified in the bid guidelines. Several of the listed companies did not possess tax clearance certificates, some did not have verifiable offices and some were awarded contracts for projects in excess of sums stipulated in BCDA guidelines.
Presently, senior officials of the BCDA are reportedly being investigated by the EFCC and there can be no telling what their findings would reveal. If the reports from Premium Timesand several other publications offer any insights, the outcome of EFCC’s probe on the agency won’t be flattering on the vice president’s managerial and probity records.
FIRS is another agency of government whose top officials are under investigations and the recent query issued the chairman of the agency- Babatunde Fowler- over declining revenue figures by the presidency- is reported to be the first in the multiple layers of probe and inquires happening at FIRS. As the chairman of the National Economic Council, Prof Osinbajo has supervisory responsibility over the revenue generating agency. The ongoing investigations into the body’s operations, the irregularities in revenue remittances and the decline in total collections vis-à-vis the figures before 2013 does not do much credit to the supervisory or administrative capabilities of the VP. Already, speculations are rife that the chairman of FIRS- Fowler- would not be returning as the agency’s boss when his term expires next year.
Isn’t it curious that agencies that are under the supervision of the VP are constantly failing the test of the anti-corruption campaign of the administration? Could it be that the president wants to keep things under a firmer control- making sure nothing escapes serious scrutiny?
Well, while it could be true that the recent drastic actions taken by the presidency which appear to weigh negatively on the reputation and competence of the Prof Yemi Osinbajo may be an attempt to revive the controversial anti-corruption campaign of the president, there’s another suggestion that there are political undertones to it all.
Yes- admitted that the economy under Osibnajo’s supervision has floundered and even tottered into recession in 2016 making the setting up of a new body imperative- albeit lately, scores of commentators are speculating that the VP’s humiliation has a lot more to do with his rumored 2023 presidential ambition than his alleged corruption or incompetence.
It is speculated that the power cabals in Aso Rock are not favourably disposed to an Osinbajo presidency in 2023 and are determined to nip it in the bud before it ever becomes a major issue in the public domain.
Babagana Kingibe, Nasir El Rufai and a few other names have been touted as favourites of the cabal currently running Nigeria under the Buhari franchise. Osinbanjo- in the estimation of power players in the Buhari presidency- is an obstacle that must be taken out by any means necessary. The Cabal- it is speculated- does not trust Osinbajo and cannot afford to stand idly by and watch him continue to rise to national acclaim and admiration.
The Cabal- which does all the dirty works for the Buhari administration- is alleged to be behind the questionable removal of Justice Walter Onnoghen as the chief justice of Nigeria in January this year. The Cabal would have more than enough to go on Osinbajo- especially in the court of public opinion. About 90% of the VP’s aides are Christians of South West origin. While this may not constitute a constitutional breach, it certainly does not paint the vice president of a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society in the best lights. The Cabal for sure would play this up to possibly alert Nigerians that the Professor does not possess a national outlook. There also have been allegations that the vice president has been using the anti-corruption agencies- EFCC most notablely- to fight the political enemies of his principal benefactor.
Another theory making the rounds is thatProf Osinbajo may not really be the target of what now seems like a proxy war. Nigerians know how Osinbajo came into the picture in 2014 after the APC primaries. Osinbajo was thrown into the mix after some stalwarts of the then newly formed opposition coalition- APC- resisted a Muslim- Muslim ticket- that would have seen Buhari pair with Tinubu for the 2015 presidency. Tinubu- according to several sources including former Senate President- Bukola Saraki- was made to nominate Prof Yemi Osinbajo who served as his commissioner for justice when he was Lagos state governor. The understanding was that after the end of Buhari’s term- should the party win- he would hand over to Tinubu who was his (Buhari) key partner (representing the ACN bloc) in the formation of APC. Tinubu has kept his part of the bargain by actively supporting Buhari and mobilizing South West votes for him in 2015 and 2019. Osinbajo is believed to be Tinubu’s eyes and ears in the Buhari presidency.
Will the Cabal support a Tinubu presidency in 2023? Well, that is unlikely and to get at Tinubu, his eyes and ears in the corridors of power must be plucked out. Unfortunately, the quickest way eviscerate Tinubu’s presidential dream is destroy the reputation and credibility of Prof Yemi Osinbajo.
The Cabal, ever brutal in its approach and known for using the weaknesses of opponents to destroy and vanquish them, Winifred Oyo-Itah and Walter Onnoghen as case studies- there is little doubt they will have more than enough “evidence” to nail the vice president in the court of public opinion.
Will Prof. Osinbajo fight back? Maybe.
Will he draw the sympathy of political elites from Southern Nigeria?
Well, according to former Aviation Minister- Femi Fani-Kayode- no sympathy or support will be coming to the VP from political stakeholders in the south where many believe him to be a traitor, a selfish politician and one who constantly burn bridges. Fani Kayode in a tweet on Wednesday blamed the VP for the travails of several influential figures from the south including former NIA DG- Ayo Oke- who was sacked in 2017 after billions allegedly belonging to him were discovered at a mansion in Ikoyi.
Former deputy national publicity secretary of the APC- Timi Frank- has also weighed in on the development around the vice president by calling on him to seek forgiveness from God and man for the role he allegedly played in using Tradermoni to deceive Nigerians in the weeks leading to the 2019 general elections.
Several other public figures from southern Nigeria including KatchOnonuju- an economist and political commentator who spoke exclusively to RootsTV earlier- have opined that Prof Osinbajo should be allowed to carry his cross alone considering the role he played in drowning and sabotaging the south since he became VP in 2015.
Osinbajo- many would recall- told an audience in New York in June this year that reports of insecurity in parts of southern Nigeria were exaggerated- a remark that drew the ire of several individuals and groups in the region including Afenifere, Ohaneze Ndigbo and PANDEF.
There’s little doubt that the VP is in a very tight corner at the moment and he may have very little support base after what is perceived as several acts of treachery against southerners and abandonment of political and economic concerns of the region.
Will he survive what political watchers and experts have predicted would be an unrelenting onslaught against his office and person in the coming days?
Only time shall tell.
But let no man play God here. If history teaches us anything, it is that 3 years is a long time in politics. As a former vice president himself- Atiku Abubakar once said, five minutes is a long time in politics. Many of us recall the story of Goodluck Jonathan who went on to become president despite not having the support of the ruling Cabal at the time. A whole lot can change between now and 2023 for while the VP may have a lot to deal with at the moment, the tides can still turn in his favour in a way no one can presently predict.
Goodluck Prof.